Letter to the Editor: Response to David Keith’s Opinion

Reference to original New York Times October 1 Opinion

The following letter is in response to the Opinion posted a few days ago.

Dear Editor,

If you can remember “Houston, we have a problem,” it is time to start shouting “Mother Earth, we have a conundrum!” We have several do or die remedies for our predicament, but politicians, scientists and activists emphasize only one: decarbonization that relies on energy efficiency and renewable energy. 

Unfortunately, difficult realities and decisions confront us.  Geoengineering and removal of carbon from the atmosphere are suggested to be both mutually exclusive and complementary emergency remedies in David Keith’s October 1 NY Times Opinion.  I agree with the latter: i.e., both are necessary.

Some fear a “milky-white sky” while humanity’s very existence hangs in the balance if we don’t face what has become obvious, that an interim emergency tourniquet or CPR-type intervention is needed to avert our demise until long term prescriptions take effect to restore a vibrant healthy Mother Earth.

Reducing emissions and removing legacy emissions will not rescue us from the climate emergency.  The transition to climate stability will not be completed for at least several decades without geoengineering. 

https://tellrex.com/2021/10/02/whats-the-least-bad-way-to-cool-the-planet-ny-times-opinion-by-david-keith/

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What’s the Least Bad Way to Cool the Planet – True/False answers

https://tellrex.com/2021/10/02/whats-the-least-bad-way-to-cool-the-planet-ny-times-opinion-by-david-keith/
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What’s the Least Bad Way to Cool the Planet – NY Times Opinion by David Keith

True or False?

These statements are in the first four paragraphs, and three are indeed false, while five are true.

  1. T or F: Zeroing out emissions will not cool the planet.
  2. T or F: Warming is proportional to the cumulative emissions over the industrial era.
  3. T or F: Average temperatures will stop increasing when emissions stop
  4. T or F: Cooling will take thousands of years as greenhouse gases slowly dissipate from the atmosphere.
  5. T or F: While the heat will stop getting worse, sea level will continue to rise for centuries as polar ice melts in a warmer world.
  6. T or F: Stopping emissions stops making the climate worse.
  7. T or F: Repairing the damage, insofar as repair is possible, will require more than emissions cuts.
  8. T or F: To cool the planet in this century, humans must either remove carbon from the air or use solar geoengineering.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/opinion/climate-change-geoengineering.html?referringSource=articleShare .

Cool
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My comments during the September 30 Vermont Climate Action Plan public event (text & PDF)

Johanna and Ian,


Thank you and the Climate Council for conducting public comment zooms.


As I mentioned, I see the emphasis exclusively on CO2 emissions from energy consumption and agricultural and waste emissions of methane, which I are one leg of a three legged stool—Carbon removal and Arctic cooling being the other two legs.


I would like to elaborate on my closing comment about Vermont’s inability to actually implement carbon removal and Arctic cooling measures. The other two legs of the three-legged stool must be addressed with international engagement of the world community, but Vermont should acknowledge the fact that simply reducing fossil fuel and agricultural and waste emissions is insufficient to effectively curtail the accelerating increase of global temperature and curtail the extreme weather events caused by the meandering jet stream and accentuated polar vortex.


Vermont’s acknowledging the deficiency of our Climate Action Plan and expressly calling on the international community to simultaneously implement steps to address the other two legs of the three-legged stool would be in line with our self proclamation of being the Brave Little State who is a giant among among global leaders.

Following are the comments I added to the chat and the google doc …

Efficient transportation systems and vehicles What should be prioritized?
Following from Doug Grandt (Putney)Put a hard cap on fossil fuel imports into the state, declining at a specific rate annually so that we reach a zero import target by date certain.
Put a hard cap on internal combustion engine vehicles (heavy duty big rigs, light duty delivery trucks, automobiles, buses, etc.) allowed to be registered and to transit the state, declining at a specific rate annually so that we reach a zero import target by date certain.
Require purveyors of fossil fuels to be responsible for the funding of removing double the emissions associated with their products delivered in the future (TIMES 2) in order to draw down the equal amount of past (legacy) emissions in order to curtail and reverse the present unabated increase of atmospheric CO2, CH4 and other GHGs and begin cooling the planet. Removing gigatons of carbon annually and cooling the Arctic are necessary supplements to decarbonization.Preceding from Doug Grandt (Putney)


Me to Everyone (6:31 PM) It seems that reducing fossil fuel combustion is the primary goal, so atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 as well as other GHG will increase at a slower and slower rate, but continue to increase until the economy is decarbonized, or net zero is achieved. Do we really want the CO2e to continue to rise unabated, and thereby global temperature to continue to rise unabated?

To begin reducing CO2e in the atmosphere, and begin cooling the planet, we must remove CO2 and CH4 associated with all current and future fossil fuel combustion …  but the temperature will continue to rise unless we begin to remove past (legacy) emissions as well. I have proposed that purveyors of fossil fuels take responsibility to fund the removal of double future GHG emissions in order to actually begin reducing the atmospheric concentrations. #RemoveCO2 and #RemoveCH4. Finally, to curtail the extreme weather brought on by the accentuated movement of the polar vortex, the meandering of the jet stream must be reversed (continued)


Me to Everyone (6:35 PM) Continued … to curtail the extreme weather brought on by the accentuated movement of the polar vortex, the meandering of the jet stream must be reversed by restoring the polar-to-tropics temperature gradient which will strengthen the jet stream. Lest we include cooling of the Arctic as the third leg of the stool, observed damage from extreme weather, heat domes, deep freeze and drought in the south west, flooding, etc. will continue. Vermont cannot do this on our own, so we must simply make the issue of cooling the Arctic an international topic of research, testing and implementation on a global basis.

In addition, I would like to supplement the comments that I made in the chat and google doc, as well as verbally, with this diagram and explanation:
TEMPERATURE TRAJECTORY DIAGRAM

Finally, in response to Jerry Duval’s explanation that a Social Cost of Carbon will be used in assessing the various measures of the Climate Action Plan, and that a range of Discount Rates will demonstrate the range of impact on future generations, I would like to state that Discount Rate is a concept to take into account the current value of future expenses taking into account the impact of  inflation, that future revenues and expenses have less value to business an d banking centered economic analysis under inflation.  The concept devalues or underestimates the real impact of future financials in determining a Return on Investment.  Since Climate decisions are not business investment decisions and there is really no analogy to financial decisions or Return on Investment, a discount rate is inappropriate, even a very low rate.


An MBA or a responsible engineer or corporate planner would disagree, but I argue that if any discount rate were used in a climate damage assessment, it should be a negative rate such that future impacts are given more weight in the assessment.


The idea is that we do not want to defer extreme damage to future generations, rather accelerate our actions to avoid kicking the can down the road into the future.  Hence, current estimates of calculated Social Cost of Carbon are way too low and should be several times greater than the White House has declared—Obama’s as well as Biden’s recent increase are both understated by an order of magnitude in my opinion.


Best regards,
Doug Grandt

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My comments during the September 30 Vermont Climate Action Plan public event

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Bernie, please meet with envoy John Kerry and implore him to tell G20 world leaders to urgently act now #CooltheArctic #RefreezeArctic EMERGENCY

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Scientist deliberations & hopium – days 57 & 58

So, this seems to be what it all boils down to, as we have essentially lost the battle and the war … are we just sniffing hopium? In my heart, it is almost sad to think that “the powers to be” are not identified, nor is anybody in a leadership role aware of the need. Reference [1] Ron Baiman – Financial Bailout Spending Would Have Almost Paid for Thirty Years of Global Green New Deal Climate: Triage, Regeneration, and Mitigation https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0486613420945406

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Will global warming stop when we achieve net-zero? – day 56

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Senator Maria Cantwell asked exactly the right questions

Yesterday, I phoned Senator Maria Cantwell’s DC and Seattle offices and left voice messages requesting a transcript of her comments, questions to the witnesses and their responses. Voila! AFTER SIX YEARS OF LETTERS AND EMAILS TO THE Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee members, I FEEL LIKE I HAVE FINALLY BEEN HEARD ON THE SUBJECT SHE RAISED ON PAGES 44-45. WATCH STARTING AT 2:06:00 🙂 Archived Hearing Video at https://www.energy.senate.gov/hearings/2021/4/full-committee-hearing-on-the-department-of-the-interior-s-onshore-oil-and-gas-leasing-program.

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Scientist deliberations and reprimands – day 55

This is the 55th in a series of actual scientists’ emails. Actual scientists deliberate and reprimand those who go off course.Deliberation continues with one key scientist deliberating whether Solar Radiation Management through Stratospheric Aerosol Injection should be limited to the Arctic north of 60°N latitude and beneath the stratosphere for just a few spring and summer months, when global widespread cooling is warranted..

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